Holding NIA's 'AI infrastructure hegemony' prediction against six months of reality. Compute alliances and bloc formation landed as forecast (🔵), semiconductor diversification was only directionally right (🟢), and the real deciders - HBM/power/serving-software bottlenecks and the capex bubble - were outside the forecast.
Reads NIA's 2026 Top 12 trends report on its own terms - identity, structure, derivation method - and flags the backward-looking nature of text-network analysis. Series entry post.
Holding NIA's 'AI infrastructure hegemony' prediction against six months of reality. Compute alliances and bloc formation landed as forecast (🔵), semiconductor diversification was only directionally right (🟢), and the real deciders - HBM/power/serving-software bottlenecks and the capex bubble - were outside the forecast.
Reads NIA's 2026 Top 12 trends report on its own terms - identity, structure, derivation method - and flags the backward-looking nature of text-network analysis. Series entry post.