Holding NIA's 'AI infrastructure hegemony' prediction against six months of reality. Compute alliances and bloc formation landed as forecast (🔵), semiconductor diversification was only directionally right (🟢), and the real deciders - HBM/power/serving-software bottlenecks and the capex bubble - were outside the forecast.
Evans and Jensen both treat the model as a commodity, then split on whether value flows up to apps or down to infrastructure
Dissecting NVIDIA H100's 88% margin structure, analyzing how the AI chip monopoly impacts the ecosystem, and examining 3 scenarios for disruption
Holding NIA's 'AI infrastructure hegemony' prediction against six months of reality. Compute alliances and bloc formation landed as forecast (🔵), semiconductor diversification was only directionally right (🟢), and the real deciders - HBM/power/serving-software bottlenecks and the capex bubble - were outside the forecast.
Evans and Jensen both treat the model as a commodity, then split on whether value flows up to apps or down to infrastructure
Dissecting NVIDIA H100's 88% margin structure, analyzing how the AI chip monopoly impacts the ecosystem, and examining 3 scenarios for disruption
First installment of a series analyzing the AI market across three layers: infrastructure ($500B+), platform ($18B+), and applications ($80B+)