Holding NIA's 'AI infrastructure hegemony' prediction against six months of reality. Compute alliances and bloc formation landed as forecast (🔵), semiconductor diversification was only directionally right (🟢), and the real deciders - HBM/power/serving-software bottlenecks and the capex bubble - were outside the forecast.
Evans 2026 deck notes - three chapters held together by one question: infrastructure boom rarely turns into value capture
Holding NIA's 'AI infrastructure hegemony' prediction against six months of reality. Compute alliances and bloc formation landed as forecast (🔵), semiconductor diversification was only directionally right (🟢), and the real deciders - HBM/power/serving-software bottlenecks and the capex bubble - were outside the forecast.
Evans 2026 deck notes - three chapters held together by one question: infrastructure boom rarely turns into value capture